- A steady rise in Bitcoin Perpetual futures CVD highlights strong activity in leveraged markets.
- On Friday, Coinbase Premium remained slightly negative (-0.06%), reflecting muted spot buying demand.
- Analyst IT Tech pointed out a visible difference between the spot market activity and derivatives positioning, indicating a risk of potential liquidity sweep.
On June 10th, the Bitcoin price experienced a notable jump of 1.9% to currently trade at $64,390. The rising price, backed by a 7.53% drop in 24-hour trading volume to $25.53 billion, highlighted a lack of support from spot traders. However, data from the perpetual futures market shows a rising Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) and positive funding rates, suggesting the rally is being driven primarily by leveraged long positions rather than strong spot demand. Such leverage-led recoveries are often fragile, increasing the risk of a sharp pullback during broader market weakness.
BTC Price Recovery Could Fade as Spot Demand Stalls
This week, Bitcoin showed several attempts to break below the $61,500 level, but rebounded each time, forming long-wick rejection candles. The buying pressure accelerated in the last 48 hours, and the coin price rebounded from $62,238 to $64,304 for a 3.56% gain.
This uptick triggered roughly $51.79 million in short-liquidation on Thursday, and a $79.38M wipeout on Friday, suggesting that the upside move gained sufficient momentum from short-sellers’ exit.
In a recent tweet, crypto analyst IT Tech highlighted visible differences between spot market flows and derivatives behaviour during this period.
Spot market participants remained limited, with the Coinbase Premium Index at -0.06% on Friday. Spot CVD stood at -$261.82 million, indicating moderate selling pressure outweighing buying pressure.
In contrast, CVD for perpetual futures shows a steady rise, and funding rates continued to be in positive territory, indicative of continued demand from long positions in leveraged instruments.
According to Coinglass data, the OI-weighted funding rate currently stands at 0.0055%, suggesting a strong conviction from long-positioned traders as they are willing to pay a premium to hold their market position.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have returned to an outflow trend after a brief relief period earlier this week. SoSo Value reported $95.3 million in net outflows for the funds on July 9.
This shift suggests waning institutional demand for spot Bitcoin exposure, despite the rising prices on the futures market. Persistent ETF outflows highlight caution among traditional investors, likely amplified by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, macroeconomic pressures, and broader risk-off sentiment in global markets.
The balance of soft spot/ETF flows, paired with high derivatives leverage, points to the fragile nature of the current rally and the need for additional caution regarding potential volatility to come.
Bitcoin Price May Retest $59k Amid Weak Bullish Momentum
The Bitcoin price showed a notable rebound from $58,527 to $64,400 within a fortnight, registering a gain of 10%. As a result, the asset’s market cap rebounded to $1.29 trillion.
A close look at the technical chart shows this recovery was accompanied by a slow yet steady decline in trading volume, indicating a lack of conviction from buyers. In addition, the Bitcoin price is still trading below the last swing high of $67,253 from mid-June, suggesting the price action continues to follow a lower high, lower low formation of an established downtrend.
If the broader market weakness persists, the BTC price could plunge another 8.73% and retest the bottom support trendline near $59,000. As shown in the chart below, this ascending trendline remains a key accumulation zone for buyers to recoup their bullish momentum.
Interestingly, the momentum indicator RSI has started forming a higher low trend while price retests the $60,000 floor. Such bullish divergence at major support has often triggered a strong recovery in price.
