- Capital inflow into Bitcoin futures remains muted; open interest is consolidating near $50 billion despite a recent price recovery.
- BTC price holds an opportunity for a $75,000 rally as the daily time frame chart displays a double-bottom pattern.
- Analyst AxelAdlerJr highlighted that the current market cycle has recorded virtually no final capitulation pressure over the last 1,256 days.
The pioneer cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is up 2.77% during Monday’s U.S. market hours to reach $65,519. This uptick came as an improved macro sentiment, as hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal and lower oil prices provided a risk-on tailwind for crypto assets.
As the Bitcoin price trades 48% down from its all-time high, several market observers call this recent uptick a potential bottom signal for further recovery. However, the latest on-chain data indicate that BTC is yet to reach the point for extreme stress or capitulation that has historically triggered a renewed recovery momentum.
Bitcoin Recovery Faces Doubts as Open Interest Flatlines
In the last three weeks, the Bitcoin price rebounded from a $59,100 low to its current trading value of $65,519. This 10% rebound triggered a recovery sentiment in the border crypto market amid easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East alongside stabilized institutional demand.
However, the Bitcoin open interest (OI), projecting the outstanding value of outstanding futures and options contracts, has remained silent during the price relief rally. According to Coinglass, BTC’s OI value is wavering around the $50 billion mark, indicating no aggressive entries from market participants to bet on this recovery.
This indicates that speculative traders are still cautious about a renewed recovery in Bitcoin price, indicating a wait-and-see approach.
However, during the prevailing correction in Bitcoin price, analyst AxelAdlerJr noted potential signs of a bottom. CryptoQuant data shows that the realized supply of long-term investors currently stands at 12.17 million BTC.
During earlier market cycles, bottoms have only formed when the long-term holder supply has jumped significantly up to 15-20 million BTC. These periods also featured strong capitulation pressure, with selling stress climbing as high as 32%. The current cycle is quite unusual, with the final sales pressure figure coming in as zero for the past 1,256 days.
Long-term holders realized supply (purple spikes) have surged repeatedly during past bear market capitulation stages, as seen in the historical charts. The current cycle has not yet experienced surges like this, which are indicative of heavy distribution and panic selling. Thus, Axel added, “Half of the pattern is missing,” which is needed for the bottom formation, suggesting prolonged consolidation ahead.
Bitcoin’s cycle momentum indicator also recorded a -11.4 reading, placing it below the zero level of the data set that goes back to 2013 and predicts price movements. Despite the recent green positive moving averages, BTC remains at the $65,500 mark with continued selling pressure through this reading in June 2026.
Red sections on the chart continue to indicate negative momentum, pulling the overall value lower. In the past, the -30 level has also served as a support in previous cycle lows.
A clear reversal would require the indicator to cross above zero alongside confirmed bullish price behavior.
Bitcoin Price Holds $60k Floor With Double-Bottom Pattern
In the daily time frame chart, the Bitcoin price shows a bullish rebound from the February 2026 low of $59,930, indicating a potential formation of a double-bottom pattern. This bullish reversal pattern is characterized by a W letter formation from a solid support region, indicating a high-demand pressure from buyers at a sub-$60k level.
In addition, the weekly RSI slope has rebounded from the 33 level during the recent rebound, which is relatively high from the 26.7 low during the February reversal. This indicates a strong bullish divergence between price action and underlying demand pressure.
With sustained buying, the BTC price could surge 9% and challenge the $70,650 resistance, followed by a jump to $75,000.
