Ethereum’s biggest holders are sitting within a price band between roughly $1,900 and $2,400, as per Crypto Analyst Murphy on X. His latest evaluation of ETH’s on-chain data demonstrates that big accounts and whale groups have acquired at different average rates. This created a key range that could affect Ethereum’s next move. Murphy argues that while expectations for ETH remain ambiguous in the present cycle, stakeholders should not be overly pessimistic with a return to $2,700 still viable.
Cost Basis of Ethereum’s Largest Holders?
As per Murphy’s evaluation, the Ethereum addresses holding ETH can be divided into four groups based on their holdings and average price. Accounts holding between 100 and 1,000 ETH have an average cost of about $1,900, while those holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH have an average cost near $2,000. For large holders, the average price rises further. Accounts holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH have an average cost of approximately $2,100, while groups holding more than 100,000 ETH have an average price of around $2,400.
This creates a cost band of approximately $1,900-$2,400 for each area of high net worth stakeholder groups. In bull markets, ETH tends to trade above this cost band, while in bear markets, it can fall below this range.
The greater the divide, he argued, the stronger the feasible demand for a return towards the average price. Murphy said that stakeholders could use this range as part of a dollar cost averaging strategy, starting accumulation when ETH trades below the cost band and decreasing purchases once the cost returns toward it.
He blended this approach with LTH NUPL, noting that when the indicator enters its red zone with LTH-NUPL below zero, long-term shareholder sentiment has reached a state of extreme despondency. As per Murphy, historical data from the past 10 years show a nearly 99.99% win rate for this strategy.
However, this represents his evaluation of the historical data rather than a guarantee of future performance. The analyst also tackled the question of whether Ethereum can return to $2,700. While he acknowledged that expectations surrounding Ethereum have become ambiguous during the present cycle, he argued that a move back to $2,700 remains feasible.
Ethereum’s $2,700-$2,800 Chips Significance
Murphy’s newest study follows his prior examination of Ethereum’s URPD (User Realized Price Distribution) chip structure. As per his earlier post, ETH’s URPD showed large chip bars between $2,700 and $2,800, with three bars altogether representing roughly 13 million ETH or more than 10% of the circulating supply. Murphy stated that this group of chips had fallen about 40%, but did not budge. He explained that Ethereum’s URPD mechanism uses an account model with Glassnode calculating weighted average costs based on the total balance of each entity.
He quoted BitMine as a potential major player behind the cluster. In his example, BitMine held 4.32 million ETH in February at an average cost of around $3,100, and later added an additional 1.48 million ETH at roughly $1,500 to $2,200. After the extra purchases, the weighted average cost was around $2,700. Murphy said the position size, cost position, and migration direction aligned, suggesting that BitMine could account for much of the chip concentration, although other clustered entities may also be involved.
He recognized two extra factors behind the larger concentration. The range was a dense trading zone from January, and some ETH is locked through on-chain staking. The concentration is also related to Ethereum’s Herfindahl index (a widely used measure of market concentration), which Murphy said has reached a new high.
The increase suggests that certain large account clusters now control a large share of ETH supply. According to his previous analysis, the shift towards greater clusters began in November 2024 after roughly nine years of increasing chip dispersion. Murphy stated that reversal towards concentration took only about two years to exceed levels seen in early 2015. The analyst also pointed to conviction buyers holding 31.42 million ETH, significantly above the 19.5 million ETH held at the previous cycle’s bear market bottom.
Similarly, chips held by lost sellers and profit takers were lower than at the bottoms of the previous two cycles. For Murphy, the information suggests that Ethereum’s supply structure has changed. Large amounts of ETH are concentrated among major accounts, ETFs, and staking positions, potentially decreasing the amount of supply immediately available to create selling pressure.
Whether that concentration becomes a source of support or resistance will rely on Ethereum’s market context and stakeholder consensus when price returns to the major cost ranges. Murphy acknowledged that Ethereum’s next cycle remains strenuous to predict, but argued that earlier $1,500 bottom showed clearer signs of a potential bottoming phase and the ETH could still return to $2,700.
