Key Highlights:
- Market remains oversold, but does not show signs of full risk-off shift.
- Bitcoin broke below its recent range to $86,500.
- Macro uncertainty keeps traders selective, delaying clear trend until 2026.
According to a market update by Wintermute, Bitcoin and the crypto market are not moving much right now. After trying and failing to go up at the end of the year, the market looks tired and stuck in a range.
Prices keep bouncing a little, but they do not stay up or down for long. Global news such as the US interest rate decision, changes in AI hype, and possible moves by Japan’s central bank, are causing sudden price swings, but there is no clear trend as such.
Due to all of this, traders are being extra careful and picking only specific trades instead of betting on the whole market. Bitcoin is currently hovering around the $86,500 mark and the crypto market is down to $2.97 trillion as per CoinMarketCap.
Macro Updates Shake Risk Appetite
According to the market update by Wintermute, as 2025 comes to an end, markets are confused and cautious. Stocks and crypto both of them are showing signs that investors are pulling back and reducing risks. Money is slowly moving away from crowded tech and AI trades, while other sectors try to catch up.
In crypto, the early strength seems to be fading. Bitcoin broke out of its narrow $88,000-$92,000 range and fell to $86,500 which has been worrisome for the investors. This move tests whether investors are still confident or will they step aside or invest in traditional safe havens.
Overall, crypto is not moving independently as of now. Instead of standing strong, it is showing the same tired behavior as stock markets, suggesting investors are waiting for clearer direction before making big moves.
Federal Reserve Signal Caution
The US central bank (Fed) cut interest rates by 0.25%, which brings total rate cuts to 1.75% since last year. This gave markets a short-term boost. However, there is a catch. The Fed also hinted that it may cut rates only once in 2026, while markets were expecting three cuts. This mixed message is something that is confusing the investors.
On top of it, the Fed also stated that it will buy $40 billion worth of government bonds, which slows down its tightening efforts. Still, the Fed is clearly worried about inflation.
Due to this uncertainty, risky assets like crypto are experiencing pressure. If the Fed stays cautious and does not add much new money into the system, crypto prices may struggle moving forward.
AI Narrative Faces Reality Check
The excitement around AI stocks is also cooling down. Even though Broadcom reported good earnings, investors have been now worried about the lower profit margins and the company pulled its 2026 outlook. This raised concerns that AI companies are spending too much money and they are not making enough profit anymore.
Big tech companies are now looking for cheaper ways in which they can run AI, which is hurting chip and semiconductor stocks.
For crypto, this has two sides to it. If money moves away from the crowded AI trades in a calm way, some of it may flow into the crypto sector. However, if AI stocks sell off quickly, it could hurt overall market confidence and it would drag crypto down as well.
A slow, controlled reset in AI hype would be good for crypto, as it could free up money without causing fear in the markets.
Bank of Japan Adds Global Tension
Japan’s central bank raised rates to 0.75%, the highest in the last 30 years, and may start selling its ETF holdings. This can pull money out of global markets by unwinding yen-based borrowing, which has hurt Bitcoin in the past.
Bitcoin usually falls during these periods and that pattern is showing up again. Most of the selling is coming from the US investors, while Europe is steady and Asia lacks strong buying interest.
So, Japan’s moves are adding to volatility but the pressure is not coming from just one place, it is a mix of Tokyo policy shift and US-driven selling.
Outlook: Consolidation Over Collapse
The market looks oversold and tired, not like they are heading into a big crash. Bitcoin breaking its recent range is worth watching, but since there is no panic selling or liquidity crisis, the downside looks more controlled.
This feels more like year-end cleanup than a major shift in market direction. The Fed’s rate cut is already priced in, and investors are feeling worn out by macro news.
Favorable conditions such as clearer US crypto rules can make a difference but until then expect volatile prices and there will be no strong trend until 2026 brings clear signals on growth, policy and liquidity.
Also Read: 21Shares Expands U.S. Crypto Lineup With XRP ETP Listing
