Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin Cash risks a potential drop to $245 amid the current correction trend within a Megaphone pattern.
- The open interest tied to BCH futures and option contracts has dropped below $350M, signalling weak speculative support from derivative traders.
- The crypto market shows another major movement on Wednesday as investors wait for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
The Bitcoin Cash price climbed nearly 3% to $304.8 during Wednesday’s U.S. market hours before reverting sharply to $295. This setback aligns with broader market pullback amid investors’ focus on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision scheduled for today at 2:00 PM ET. However, the BCH price faces additional selling pressure amid overhead resistance of the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) and a sharp decline in open interest.
Crypto Market at Wait-and-See Approach
On October 28th, the Bitcoin price dropped 0.47% to trade at $80,544. The lack of recovery momentum can be attributed to investors freezing capital as they wait for the Federal Reserve’s imminent interest rate decisions.
Economists anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark interest rate at the 3.75% to 4.00% target range following September’s 25-basis-point increase. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 90.6% probability of rates remaining unchanged, alongside a 9.4% likelihood of a further 25-basis-point hike to 4.00%–4.25%.
If the Fed keeps the benchmark interest rate unchanged, the potential impact on the crypto market could depend on the wording and tone of the post-meeting conference. If Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh adopts a hawkish tone on persistent inflation, digital assets could face immediate downward pressure as investors price in a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment.
This aggressive posture would strengthen the U.S. Dollar and drive up Treasury yields, effectively draining global liquidity away from speculative risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.
Along with macroeconomic uncertainty, the Bitcoin Cash price faces additional pressure from a declining trendline in open interest. According to Coinglass data, the BCH OI— projecting the total value of outstanding value of futures and option contracts— witnessed a significant decline from nearly $600M to $340M over the past months, accounting for 32% decline.
The downward trend signals heavy liquidation of long-positioned traders or the rapid unwinding of leverage bets as investors flee from highly volatile assets to safer options like U.S. Treasuries.
The lack of speculative support could add future downside pressure on BCH price, signalling the continuation of the prevailing correction.
Bitcoin Cash Price Faces Supply Pressure at 200-day EMA
Over the past month, the Bitcoin Cash price has witnessed a bearish pullback from $345 to the current trading value of $304, registering a loss of nearly 15%. Consequently, the asset’s market cap fell to $5.93B.
Amid this correction, the BCH price managed to form temporary support at $264 amid CME Group’s launch of standard and micro Bitcoin Cash futures contracts. The immediate market appetite for the product was confirmed when digital asset liquidity giants FalconX and GSR successfully executed the inaugural block trades
However, the momentum seems to have faded as the coin price struggles to break past the 200-day EMA slope at $300. Today, the BCH’s daily candle shows a long-wick rejection at this moving average, signalling intact overhead pressure.
With sustained selling, the Bitcoin Cash price could drop another 15% and retest the bottom trendline of a megaphone pattern at $245. Since late July 2026, the pattern’s diverging trendlines have acted as dynamic support and resistance for traders, keeping the price resonating with a rising channel.
If history repeats, the Bitcoin Cash price could hold the bottom floor and replenish the bullish momentum for the next recovery leap.
On the other hand, if the sellers breach the bottom trendline with a decisive breakout, the coin price could extend this downtrend to the $200 floor.
