According to an analysis from CryptoQuant, analyst DarkfrostBitcoin’s stated today, September 15, 2026, that short-term holders have remained mostly in profit for nearly a month and this marks a longer period of profitability than seen during earlier attempts to recover from the market downturn. The analyst said the pattern appeared near the end of previous Bitcoin bear markets, when short-term holders stopped repeatedly returning to losses and began maintaining profitable positions.
CryptoQuant estimates that short-term holders currently hold about $168 billion in unrealized profits, compared with slightly more than $100 billion in unrealized losses. The data has drawn attention because sustained profitability among recent buyers can indicate a change in market conditions.
However, the analysis does not establish that Bitcoin has entered a new market phase. Darkfrost said a sustained move above $80,000 would provide stronger confirmation of the pattern.
At the time of writing, the price of the token is down by 2.2% in the last 24-hours and is trading at $76,539.11 as per CoinGecko.
Short-term Holders Have Remained Profitable For Nearly A Month
CryptoQuant classifies short-term holders through the age of the Bitcoin they hold. ItsSTH-SOPR methodology focuses on coins that have been held for more than one hour and less than 155 days. When the metric is above 1, the relevant coins are, on average, being spent at a profit, while a reading below 1 indicates that they are being spent at a loss.
In theCryptoQuant analysis, Darkfrost said this is the first sustained period since the previous market top in which short-term holders have remained mostly profitable for an extended period. A similar period occurred in January 2026, but lasted less than a week, while losses remained dominant among the group in May 2026. The current profitable period has now lasted close to a month.
The analysis measures those unrealized profits and losses in dollar terms. Darkfrost estimates that short-term holders currently have around $168 billion in unrealized profits, while unrealized losses are slightly above $100 billion. The comparison is intended to show the relative scale of gains and losses among recent Bitcoin buyers rather than simply counting profitable or unprofitable coins.
Moreover, Darkfrost sees the sustained profitability as a possible signal of changing market conditions. The report also highlighted the $80,000 level as a price threshold that could strengthen the interpretation if Bitcoin can remain above it.
Recent buyers tend to respond more quickly to changes in Bitcoin’s price, meaning repeated moves between profit and loss can coincide with periods of selling and renewed weakness. CryptoQuant’s current analysis focuses on whether that cycle is beginning to change.
Historical Pattern Still Needs Confirmation From Bitcoin’s Price
Darkfrost’s argument is based on the behavior observed during previous market downturns, particularly the 2022–2023 period. According to the CryptoQuant analysis, bear markets can persist when short-term holders repeatedly return to losses after temporary recoveries.
A more sustained period of profitability can instead reduce the pressure on recent buyers to sell at a loss. The analyst is not treating the current data alone as confirmation of a reversal. Darkfrost said Bitcoin would need to hold its current levels and establish itself durably above $80,000 for the signal to become more convincing.
CryptoQuant’s broaderBitcoin market indicators also show why short-term-holder profitability is only one part of on-chain analysis. The company describes STH-SOPR as a measure of the profit and loss behavior of recent market participants, with the metric particularly sensitive to shorter-term changes in market conditions. The data points to a condition that CryptoQuant has historically associated with later stages of Bitcoin bear markets, but it does not settle the direction of the current market.
