What to Know
- David Duong warns that advances in quantum computing could weaken Bitcoin security faster than markets expect.
- Around one-third of Bitcoin supply may be vulnerable because some wallet data is already publicly visible on the blockchain.
- BlackRock has officially listed quantum computing as a risk in its iShares Bitcoin Trust filings.
Bitcoin’s long-term security may be heading into unknown territory, according to David Duong, the global head of investment research at Coinbase. In a recent warning, Duong said that advances in quantum computing are moving faster than the crypto market is prepared for, and the risks are no longer just theoretical.
Duong believes that even if a direct attack on Bitcoin is not happening right now, the threat from quantum computing has grown into a real structural risk. He estimates that around one-third of all Bitcoin could already be vulnerable because of how some wallets were created and used in the past.
“Bitcoin’s long-term security may be entering a new regime as quantum computing advances,” Duong wrote in a LinkedIn post. He added that investors are becoming more worried as progress in quantum technology seems to be accelerating faster than many expected. “Investors are becoming increasingly concerned that quantum computing risks may be approaching faster than previously thought,” he said.
Why Bitcoin could be at Risk
The concern mainly comes down to how Bitcoin wallets work. When someone spends Bitcoin from certain older types of wallets, parts of their cryptographic information become publicly visible on the blockchain. For about one-third of the total Bitcoin supply, this information is already exposed.
With today’s computers, this exposure is not a serious problem. Breaking Bitcoin’s security using current machines would take an unrealistically long time. But quantum computers are different. If they become powerful enough, they could try millions of possible combinations at speeds far beyond what traditional computers can do.
Duong stressed that the biggest risk is not related to Bitcoin mining or how new coins are created. Instead, the main concern is signature security, the method used to prove that a transaction really belongs to the wallet owner. If quantum machines can break these signatures, attackers could potentially steal coins from exposed wallets. “Quantum mining remains a lower-priority concern given current scaling constraints,” Duong wrote. “Signature security is the central issue.”
Researchers Disagree
In October, quantum computing researcher Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Demers said that he expects quantum computers to be capable of cracking Bitcoin’s cryptography within four to five years. While this view is not shared by everyone, it has added urgency to the debate.
Because of these concerns, Bitcoin developers and researchers have started exploring possible upgrades. One idea being discussed is the use of “hash-based signatures,” which are believed to be more resistant to quantum attacks. However, these solutions are still being researched and tested and are not ready for wide use yet.
The issue has also caught the attention of major financial players. In May, BlackRock explicitly listed quantum computing as a risk factor in an amended prospectus for its flagship iShares Bitcoin Trust. This move showed that concerns about quantum threats are not limited to academics or crypto-native firms.
Final Thoughts
For now, there is no immediate danger to Bitcoin holders. Quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin’s security do not yet exist at the required scale. Still, Duong’s warning highlights a growing issue that the industry cannot ignore.
As Bitcoin continues to grow and attract long-term investors, planning for future risks will be critical. The rise of quantum computing may force Bitcoin to adapt in ways it never has before, marking a new chapter in its long-term evolution.
Also Read: Bitcoin Shows Cycle Pattern as Short-Term Holders Sell
