What to Know:
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says HYPE could rise 126× over three years, potentially exceeding $5,000 per token.
- Hyperliquid dominates decentralized perpetual futures, handling over 75% of the DEX market, with record trading metrics.
- This bullish forecast reignites debate, is Hyperliquid genuinely poised for explosive growth or is it riding hype.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, made a shocking statement at the WebX 2025 conference in Tokyo: Hyperliquid’s HYPE token could go up 126X in three years, possibly reaching more than $5,000. His projection is based on the belief that stablecoin usage will explode, fueling Hyperliquid’s fee revenue from $1.2 billion to a massive $258 billion annually.
Hayes is no stranger to bold predictions. He said earlier this year that Ethereum could reach $20,000 because of changes in the economy and more institutions using it. Investors tend to pay close attention to him because he has a history of combining contrary ideas with data-driven analysis. This context gives extra weight to his latest call on Hyperliquid, even as skeptics warn that such lofty targets should be taken with caution. Not surprisingly, the market responded. HYPE briefly jumped from around $43 to $47.4, though it later settled near its current value of $45.
What’s Behind the HYPE Call?
Hyperliquid has captured over 75% of the decentralized perpetuals market, a remarkable shift from dYdX just two years ago. The platform saw key new highs: open positions neared 198,400, open interest exceeded $15 billion, and weekend volume surged close to $19.5 billion. Such momentum gives weight to Hayes’ expectations.
To quantify the upside, Hayes’ model assumes the stablecoin market could reach $10 trillion by 2028, with Hyperliquid capturing 26.4% of average daily trading volume. From that scenario, he calculates a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $5.161 trillion, translating to the 126× potential.
Hyperliquid total open positions hit an all-time high of 198,397 on Monday, according to the Hypertracker analytics platform. Meanwhile, open interest, or the value of contracts yet to be settled, climbed above $15 billion, and total wallet equity peaked at $31 billion.
Hyperliquid DEX volume also hit an all-time high of $1.56 billion over the weekend, according to DefiLlama. Transaction fees have also reached July’s all-time high of $93 million so far this month. DefiLlama also shows that the total value locked for the derivatives DEX is currently $685 million, just shy of its February peak.
Reality Check: Is $5,000 Realistic?
Despite the flashy numbers, there’s a long road ahead. HYPE’s current market cap stands around $15 billion, with real-time trades hovering near $45. That’s several orders of magnitude lower than the forecast price. Still, Hyperliquid checks a lot of the right boxes: it runs on its own Layer-1 blockchain, offers order-book-style trading with near-instant execution, and supports staking, token burning, and governance that give HYPE function beyond speculation.
Hayes isn’t merely talking, he’s backing it. On-chain data shows he recently bought tens of thousands of HYPE tokens, alongside other major crypto assets. Still, some caution is needed. Hayes’ model hinges on that expansion and on Hyperliquid maintaining its market share and fee structure.
Hyperliquid’s WLFI derivatives strategy is another thing that is driving the token’s rise. This project has sparked a new wave of interest in HYPE, especially in the pre-TGE markets. Assumptions like stablecoin reaching $10 trillion may be optimistic. The project is creating a strong base of demand that goes beyond speculative hype by giving traders more tools to work with.
Bottom Line
Arthur Hayes’ 126X prediction for HYPE token has sparked excitement and skepticism in equal measure. It is still unclear if Hyperliquid can live up to its high expectations or if it will fail to be a big shot ahead for decentralized trading. For now, HYPE is one of the most-watched DeFi tokens of 2025 because of how well it works and how well it is designed.
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