The Pi Network token unlocks matters now more than ever, as it could have a significant effect on Pi coin’s price in the upcoming market cycles. Pi Network has locked most of its tokens to create an artificial scarcity.
With most unlock periods almost here, a supply shock could trigger a massive sell-off from newly unlocked holders. Given that the price is already trading in the lower range of $0.20 to $0.30, the predicted 15% to 25% price drop could crystallize, as holders may finally cash out amid uncertainty about Pi coin’s long-term value.
The rising user interest following recent KYC migrations is influencing the Pi Network circulating supply. More users are gaining access to Pi tokens, concentrating sell pressure into a single unlock window rather than spreading it across multiple unlock windows.
Pi Network is currently in a dilution phase, and investors are very reluctant to accumulate Pi tokens because a potential supply shock is coming. Hence, investors look to find out, “Will Pi Network price crash after unlocks?”
Understanding Pi Network’s Token Unlock Schedule
Token unlocks are scheduled releases of previously locked tokens, often from vesting periods, team allocations, and share formulas into the trading market. These unlocks create selling pressure, as most token owners who received the tokens at low prices sell them after the unlocks to make a profit. A supply wave then hits the market while demand stagnates, thereby driving the token price down.
To reduce selling pressure, Pi Network works with a multi-phase unlock schedule. These tokens were initially mined through a community mining system on their phones during the closed mainnet period. These tokens were locked until the mainnet migration and KYC completion. Miners had to pass the KYC verification process to unlock their tokens and transfer them to the open mainnet.
This periodic verification process allows users to unlock their tokens periodically rather than all at once. Also, the Pi tokens allocated to node operators, Pi app developers, and ecosystem contributors were released incrementally according to their contributions to the ecosystem. Altogether, a multi-phase unlock model is created where tokens are unlocked over months and years to reduce selling pressure.
| Phase | Tokens Released | Expected Impact |
| December 2025 | 10M+ | About 10% to 20% short-term dilution |
| Q1 2026 | 20M | High volatility, bearish sentiment |
| Post-KYC | Gradual | Liquidity Increase |
Unlike the traditional cliff unlocks in Aptos and DYDX, which drove about 45% price corrections after monthly and quarterly unlocks, Pi Network operates a spaced, multi-phased unlock system over periodic KYC verifications and reward crystallization to reduce selling pressure.
How Supply Growth Impacts Pi’s Price: Bearish and Bullish Scenarios
- Bearish Case
If Pi Networks unlock volume rises without commensurate exchange liquidity, moderate selling action could trigger a sharp dip in Pi’s price, as there are insufficient market bids to absorb the supply shock.
In this bearish case, unlocked holders sell off massively, and investors also trigger their stop-loss positions. Pi’s price could then nosedive towards a $0.1 to $0.2 low range before stabilizing.
- Neutral case
Neutrally, we could see a moderate market action scenario if Pi’s ecosystem utilities start attracting a larger user base. This then generates a steady buying pressure for ecosystem activities to match the supply shock, though with some periodic chops on the side.
Hence, news users buy the tokens of long-term holders to fuel ecosystem interactions, and moderate liquidity begins to flow into exchanges. Pi’s price could then balance around the $0.2 to $0.3 neutral range, where neither bulls nor bears are in control of the market.
- Bullish Case
We could also have a bullish scenario where the Pi token gets listed on major exchanges, and there are stable KYC completions in place. This quickly sends a bullish signal to investors to accumulate more tokens and for long-term holders to hold their positions.
Consequently, Pi begins to recover losses and moves to the upside of $0.3 to smash the $0.5 price point. This scenario creates a sense of FOMO in the market, as institutional investors supply liquidity to the market in the form of PI/USDT and PI/BTC trading pairs.
So, depending on macro factors like working ecosystem utilities, major exchange listings, and positive institutional sentiment, the supply growth occasioned from Pi token unlocks could influence Pi Coin’s price in the coming market cycles. Readers can see our detailed PI coin price prediction, which estimates price ranges for 2025 – 2030.
Trading Strategies After KYC and Unlocks
- KYC First
The completion of the Know Your Customer (KYC) procedure matters for liquidity, as it crystallizes real supply. Crypto exchanges need to verify the number of legitimate holders rather than bot-generated ones. Without this process, listings would be fraught with a lot of ecosystem instability and market uncertainties.
Regulatory requirements also require that all token owners be verified to prevent fraudulent activities such as money laundering. Application issues such as poor picture quality, name discrepancies, and document mismatches can take time to resolve. Hence, listing before KYC would cause ecosystem chaos, as many tokens would be frozen, creating false scarcity and sudden supply shocks.
- Accumulation Strategy
Buying after token unlocks and using the dollar-cost averaging investment system are prime trading strategies after KYC and unlocks. Firstly, focus on buying at low prices, following higher lows in the cycle to compound your profits during a market surge.
Then, with dollar-cost averaging, you have a fixed investment amount at regular intervals, regardless of price. For example, you can keep investing $50 every month despite market dips and surges. This way, you average out your cost basis over time and reduce your risk.
- Short-term Trading
Here, you can trade off unlock announcements to take advantage of the market sentiment within that period. If the unlocks are large, you can enter a sell position, as market sentiments may be negative because of the supply shock. You can also enter a buy position if announcements say that unlock amounts will be very limited, as more demand in the ratio to scarce supply will likely drive prices up.
You can also monitor support zones to make buy decisions, as prices generally go up in these zones. Also, liquidity pockets are crucial zones that you can track to buy or sell in the short term. These are specific price levels where the buy or sell orders accumulate, resulting in high trading volume. You can target bid pockets to enter buy positions, ask pockets to enter sell positions, and thin zones to scalp on buy or sell waves.
- Risk Management
Risk management is a tested and trusted method for preserving your trading profits and minimizing your losses. You want to use just 5% of your capital to enter a particular market position to protect your trading capital.
This way, if the market does not go your way, you still have more than enough capital to recoup the losses and make more profit in later trades. You also want to avoid pre-unlock FOMO by buying after post-unlock hype has died down and panic sellers have exhausted their positions. This way, you get a better entry, acquiring the tokens while leaving the unlock risks behind.
Conclusion: Unlocks Bring Volatility — but also Opportunity
The truth is that supply unlocks bring short-term risks, since the market is flooded with early bird tokens. Long-term holders now seek to liquidate their tokens for profit, as their cost basis is now lower. Hence, the token’s value dips because the market has to absorb the float afterward, as seen in recent market dips in Pi coin following token unlocks.
In the long term, liquidity can increase to compensate for the supply shocks if Pi network’s ecosystem utilities materialize. New users would need the token for ecosystem interaction and transactions. By then, institutional capital would flow into the Pi market to reduce slippage and unlock larger trading positions.
The market would then experience trading stability, since tokens are no longer concentrated in the wallets of early holders but are now spread across institutional portfolios and new ecosystem users. Aspiring investors and traders can visit our Pi coin forecast for more granular forecasts to guide their investment decisions.
