Bettors on the prediction market platform Polymarket recently found themselves confused after the odds on the India–Pakistan conflict turned out to be disputed.
Polymarket users bet on India-Pakistan Tensions
A market titled “Another Indian military strike on Pakistan by Friday?” ended with a 100% “Yes” outcome but remains unresolved. According to the site:
“We’re aware of the dispute on this market. If a clarification is to be issued, it will be at 1 PM ET. If no statement is issued at that time, then there will be no clarification by the Polymarket team.” The order book will reportedly be cleared at 1 PM ET regardless of whether a clarification is made. “Strikes made by loitering munitions qualify toward this market’s resolution,” added the platform.
The ‘India–Pakistan conflict’ prediction market has reached a trading volume of $5,088,088.
Polymarket said that the prediction market would resolve to “Yes” if India were to start an airstrike or missile strike on Pakistani soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or against any Pakistani embassies or consulates, between May 6 at 5:00 PM ET and May 9, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Or else, the market would resolve to “No”.
It was explained that for the purposes of the market, a qualifying “strike” referred to the use of aerial bombs or missiles (whether cruise or ballistic)launched by Indian military forces that impacted Pakistani territory, airspace, or maritime assets. Examples included an Indian airstrike on a Pakistani site or a missile landing within Pakistani territory.
The site clarified that actions such as artillery fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, sanctions, small arms fire, or purely diplomatic confrontations would not be considered for resolution.
Additionally, Polymarket, which is deemed as one of the best crypto political betting sites, specified that the strike must either be officially acknowledged by the Indian government or confirmed through a consensus of credible reporting.
Notably, Polymarket was recently in the news after Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin publicly criticized the prediction market platform for what he described as a “tasteless” invasion of privacy.
India Pakistan War
The decades-long tensions between India and Pakistan were reignited after India suffered one of the deadliest terror attacks in Pahalgam, Kashmir, on April 22. India claimed that the terrorists originated from Pakistan and responded by precisely targeting and destroying terrorist camps and bases within Pakistani territory, as well as eliminating several blacklisted terrorists on May 6 (Tuesday night).
Pakistan, in turn, retaliated against India’s actions by attacking multiple positions along the Line of Control (LoC). Notably, Pakistan, which had recently admitted to its role in the deadly Pulwama terror attack, was reportedly granted IMF aid during the confrontation—a move that sparked significant backlash from netizens. The deadly exchange went on for several days.
Amid the escalating conflict, US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire on Saturday. However, just hours later, multiple instances of cross-border firing by Pakistan were reported along India’s border regions in Kashmir, Rajasthan, and Punjab.
Despite ongoing tensions, both countries have reportedly reached an “understanding” regarding the ceasefire.
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