What to Know
- Polymarket uses real-money crowd predictions to show real-time odds across politics, sports and crypto.
- CEO Shayne calls it “the most accurate thing we have,” as major investors push its valuation to $9 billion.
- Crypto discussions on Polymarket influence daily sentiment, narratives and news.
Shayne Coplan, the founder and CEO of Polymarket, believes his prediction platform is doing something traditional pollsters cannot. In a recent interview, he said Polymarket is “the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now” when it comes to predicting real-world events. And based on what happened during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, many people are starting to agree.
Coplan says that’s the power of the “wisdom of crowds.” The site works by letting people bet on yes-or-no questions about future events. These bets create odds that show how likely an outcome is, based on thousands of people putting real money behind their beliefs. “It’s not a poll,” Coplan explained. “Polls measure what percentage of people support a candidate. Polymarket measures who is likely to win and those are not the same thing.
How the Platform Works
The site displays around 10,000 active questions at any time across 15 categories. Each question has two options: yes or no. Users choose one side and place money on it.
Shayne explained the simple idea behind it: “You make money if you’re right. You lose money if you’re wrong.” As more people bet or as news breaks, the odds shift live on the site. These real-time updates give users a sense of how the crowd sees unfolding events.
Why Is Polymarket Better?
Shayne says prediction markets offer something that polls and experts often cannot. Here are the key reasons:
1. It focuses on outcomes, not opinions
Shayne argues that outcome-based predictions are what people actually care about.
2. It reacts faster than traditional analysis
While news channels and experts take time to adjust their views, Polymarket updates instantly. When new information appears, odds move within seconds.
3. It gathers thousands of perspectives at once
Instead of relying on one pollster or one analyst, Polymarket combines the knowledge of a massive and diverse group.
4. It covers far more topics than any polling company
From global elections to celebrity news, sports events, and economic decisions, Polymarket offers predictions in areas many traditional services never touch.
Setbacks and Rapid Growth
Polymarket expanded quickly and initially did not meet all U.S. regulatory requirements. This led to an investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a $1.4 million settlement. The company also had to block U.S. users until it could get proper licensing. Later, the FBI seized Shayne’s devices during an investigation that was ultimately dropped. After that, the company moved to acquire a fully licensed platform to operate legally in the United States.
Polymarket’s biggest turning point came when major backers like Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange announced a $2 billion investment. This deal pushed Polymarket’s valuation to $9 billion. The company also earned support from well-known founders, investors, and even entertainers. Polymarket still offers its predictions for free and charges no trading fees.
Polymarket’s Influence on Crypto
Polymarket’s rise has also had a major impact on the broader crypto world. Because the platform runs on Polygon chain and uses crypto to settle trades, it has introduced millions of new users to how digital assets move, settle, and power real applications. Many people who were never interested in crypto before now interact with it simply because Polymarket makes it part of an everyday activity predicting real-world events. The platform even hosts markets like “Will Bitcoin / Ethereum close above ___ on December 1?” and “Will MicroStrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase between November 25 and December 1?” These questions often go viral and can subtly influence daily news, crypto discussions, price sentiment and social media narratives.
Big investors, hedge funds, and exchanges now see prediction markets as a powerful new part of the crypto economy, one that can generate reliable signals. As other companies like Coinbase, Gemini, FanDuel, and even Truth Social move into prediction markets, the entire crypto ecosystem is expanding into a new category.
Final Thoughts
Millions of people now visit Polymarket to see its predictions, and hundreds of thousands actively trade on the platform. Shayne’s long-term goal is ambitious: reach one billion users. “There are billions of people who could find value in this,” he said. “Until those people have Polymarket and are getting value from Polymarket, job’s not done.”
As prediction markets move into mainstream finance and media, Polymarket is shaping a new way for people to understand and track real-world events through the power of the crowd, not just experts.
Also Read: Bitcoin Surges Above $92,000 Amid Turmoil in Crypto Market
