- The Bitcoin price jump to $71,000 could struggle to sustain as spot buyers are distributing during strength, while futures trades are building leverage positions.
- On Monday, the spot BTC ETFs collectively welcomed $167.1 million in inflow, suggesting a renewed institutional interest in the traditional market.
- In the short-term trend, Bitcoin price is consolidating between the two horizontal levels of $73,000 and $62,500, suggesting a period of uncertainty before the next breakout.
The original cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, rose roughly 4% during Tuesday’s market hours to reach $71,000 region. The uptick gained momentum from several factors including the recent comment by U.S. president Donald Trump of a potential end to the Iran conflict, renewed spot ETF inflow and rising futures trading tied to BTC. However, many analysts suggest that the ongoing upswing in a potential bear trap and the prevailing correction trend could extend lower.
Bitcoin Price Faces a Potential Bear Trap As Price Jump Lacks Real Money Inflow
On March 10th, the crypto market jumped over 2% to reach a market cap of $2.41 Trillion. The buying pressure follows a risk on sentiment in the broader market as Trump signaled that the U.S-Iran war could be ending soon. Moreover, a significant drop in oil prices eased immediate inflation fear and potential tightening of interest rates.
While Bitcoin price receives support from de-escalation of geopolitical tension, market analyst IT_Tech suggests a continued distribution from spot traders. The below chart shows that the BTC’s surge to $71,000 is fueled by speculative force as futures long recorded a Cumulative Volume Delta of +759.41 million, while the spot CVD is -6.23 million.
This suggests spot participants driving a selling pressure during the recent uptick, while the futures buyers are building the bullish momentum.
Meanwhile, the order book is tilted towards selling as spot delta value is at -1.1k suggesting a mild ask-side imbalance as real-money buyers are not stacking bids aggressively but more sell orders are present.
The perpetual delta value at -3.9k suggest a higher ask-side pressure as leveraged trades are even more willing to post sell-limit orders
Funding rate at +0.0042% hints at a moderate bullish outlook as long as traders are paying premium to shorts for holding their position.
Typically, the recovery bolster by only leverage force is considered unsustainable. As spot hands are not buying but distributing during strength, analysts mark the recent surge as a potential ‘bear trap’.
Thus, until spot CVD is flipped to positive values, BTC participants must remain cautious for a potential breakdown and continuation of the prevailing downtrend.
4-Year Cycle Pattern Says Bitcoin Price May Bottom in October
In another X post, Quinten Francois, a crypto co-founder highlighted the BTC’s repetition fractal cycle, projecting a cycle bottom in October 2026. Data from Apharctal echoes patterns from 2018 and 2022 bear markets and how BTC navigates through a 4-year cycle with in-between short-term cycles driven by market accumulation and distribution.
Currently, the Bitcoin price trades at $71,200 with a market capitalization of $1.42 trillion. If history repeats, crypto holders could witness 7 more months of slow bleed and doubt which could create an emotional turmoil.
The cycle shows repeating human behaviors in fractals as fear leading to capitulation often leads to distribution and followed by regret-fueled FOMO buys at higher price.
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