According to a report by QCP Asia Color, macro uncertainty is gripping the crypto market with a thirty-day correlation to the MSCI World Equity Index, the yardstick for assessing equity markets in developed countries, reaching a high of 0.6. This is the highest the indicator has reached in two years.
The world stocks and the crypto market are simulating each other in their movement, nearly 60% of the time. The uncertainties bellowing in the markets ahead of the November presidential elections have impacted the global stock and crypto markets.
The contract market, however, has been experiencing a surge in activity in light of the current market conditions. There has been significant interest, particularly in September 11 options, where 400 contracts have been bought at 57.5k, with traders hoping for a positive market move of about a 3.3% hike shortly. As of September 10th, the spot price is 56.8K; traders are putting their bets for 57.5K by September 11 (the closing date) post the presidential debate.
While the crypto market has been restructuring itself after last week’s bearish stance, implied volatility remains quite high. Traders are taking note of the market and having second thoughts as risk reversal strategies are hinting traders to ‘put’, meaning sell, their positions for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
However, interest in long-term bullish trade contracts has peaked, especially for 28th March 2025 calls at strike prices of 85K, 100K, and even 120K. Even with the ongoing volatility, traders are leveraging the current price drops to reposition their trades and strategies.
The global crypto market is on its edge as the presidential debate commences on September 10 at 9 p.m. ET at the National Constitution Center, Philadelphia. While Trump has shown his vocal support for crypto, the market awaits Harris’s outlook.
