- The SEC must deliver a final decision on Grayscale’s Cardano ETF by October 26, 2025.
- Over the past five weeks, the Cardano price correction resonated within the two trendlines of a flag pattern.
- The momentum indicator RSI (Relative Strength Index) above 40% accentuates the restoring of the bullish momentum in price.
ADA, the native cryptocurrency of the Cardano ecosystem, showed strong resilience above the $0.8 level on Monday. The buying pressure followed a broader relief rally in the crypto market and investors’ anticipation of an ETF launch in October. The technical chart further supports the bullish narrative as the Cardano price bounced within the formation of a bullish continuation pattern. Is a rally to $1 imminent? For a deeper long-term outlook on ADA beyond the ETF deadline, readers can check our detailed ADA crypto price prediction analysis.
SEC Faces October 26 Deadline on Cardano ETF
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has a tight deadline to decide on Grayscale’s proposed Cardano (ADA) exchange-traded fund by October 26, 2025. The filing under a 19b-4 rule cannot be continued further, and therefore, the end of October is a critical point for the project and the crypto ETF industry.
The review is only weeks following the adoption of sweeping reforms by the SEC to its listing framework of spot commodity ETFs. Exchange systems like NYSE, Nasdaq, and Cboe can launch crypto-linked products much faster and easier under the new rules, reducing the time to approve new products to almost 9 months in some instances, down to 75 days.
Analysts interpret this change as an indication that the agency is about to normalize other digital asset investment vehicles on top of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Grayscale has already submitted an updated S-1 to correct its filing in order to reinforce the argument that ADA should be included in regulated markets. Odds of approval have risen to 91% in recent weeks on betting sites such as Polymarket, which strongly indicates optimism.
Approved, the Cardano ETF would provide traditional investors with ADA exposure with no custodial risks and possibly increasing liquidity, institutional inflows, and mainstream exposure. It may also be used as a precedent with other altcoin ETFs, where Solana, XRP, and Litecoin products are similarly awaiting an SEC decision this October.
Flag Pattern Sets Cardano Price for Two Key Breakouts
Since last weekend, the Cardano price has showcased a bullish bounce from $0.757 to the current trading price of $0.813, accounting for 7.2% of growth. The buying pressure came along with a relief rally in the broader crypto market as Bitcoin reclaimed $110,000, and the Ethereum price jumped above $4,000.
In the daily chart, this upswing assists in the formation of a bullish continuation pattern called a ‘flag’. Theoretically, the chart setup is characterized by a long ascending trendline reflecting the dominant force in price, followed by a temporary pullback between two parallel trendlines to recoup exhausted bullish momentum.
With today’s jump of 0.45%, the Cardano price is heading close to a bullish breakout from the combined resistance of $0.8123 and daily exponential moving averages (20 and 50). The breakout would drive another 7.5% surge in price as buyers challenge the key resistance at $0.89.
An upside breakout from this flag resistance would be key for Cardano price to reclaim $1.
On the contrary, if the coin sellers continue to defend the flag resistance trendline, the current correction would prolong for the coming months.
