Hyperliquid has been one of the hottest names in crypto this year. Its ecosystem has exploded, volumes have hit record highs, and the recent USDH bidding war was described as one of the “sexiest beauty contests in crypto history.” But with the crown comes the Sword of Damocles. HYPE is about to face its biggest test yet.
HYPE’s Unlock Problem
Starting November 29, 2025, a massive amount of HYPE tokens will begin to unlock. In total, 237.8 million HYPE will vest linearly over 24 months. At today’s price of around $50, that equals a staggering $11.9 billion — nearly $500 million of new tokens hitting the market every month. The math gets tougher when you consider buybacks. Current buybacks only cover about 17% of the supply, leaving a $410 million monthly overhang that could weigh heavily on the market.
As Arthur Hayes recently explained in his article “HYPE’s Damocles Sword” even insiders are bracing for impact. Hayes himself sold 96,600 HYPE, citing the scale of unlocks as a looming challenge.
Now imagine being a Hyperliquid developer. You’ve worked insane hours for years, and finally, life-changing sums of HYPE are about to vest. One click is all it takes to sell. What would you do?
Can DATs Save the Day?
Some believe DATs can soften the blow. The most notable is Sonnet, one of the largest crypto DATs ever, expected to close in Q4 2025. Sonnet has raised around $583 million in HYPE and $305 million in cash. That’s a serious war chest but when stacked against $500 million in new tokens every month, it’s still just a drop in the bucket.
Other DATs have raised smaller sums, but together they may not be enough to offset the constant selling pressure once the unlocks begin.
When Sharks Smell Blood
Hyperliquid didn’t rise to the top without stepping on toes. In crypto, winning often paints a target on your back. Competitors, from top exchanges to newer challengers, are circling. One example is Lighter.xyz, a project backed by Maelstrom. And just before Hyperliquid’s unlocks, CZ pushed Aster into the spotlight. The timing doesn’t feel accidental.
Yesterday, reports highlighted how 42% of HYPE’s airdrop remains unclaimed with Aster excluded from the allocation. Today, traders watched a whale drop $15 million USDC into Hyperliquid longs, sending BTC, SOL, and HYPE higher in the short term.
But markets remain nervous. Over the past 24 hours, HYPE fell 9.33%, underperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum. The main reason seems to be that people are taking profits after a great run. HYPE has gone up by more than 1,422% in the last year, and short-term traders are now locking in their profits while they can. On-chain data shows that more tokens are moving toward potential sell orders, which means that more tokens are coming into exchanges. It’s normal for some people to lock in profits after such a big rise, especially in a market that already seems cautious. For now, the token is holding above the $46–$48 support zone, but if selling continues to outweigh buying demand, that floor may not hold.
The Bigger Question
And now, with Aster officially live, the question is no longer just about unlocks. It’s about competition. Aster has burst onto the scene with staggering momentum: its token price jumped nearly 1,650% within a day of launch, TVL briefly crossed $2B, and over 2M wallets were onboarded almost overnight. By contrast, Hyperliquid still commands far deeper liquidity and higher trading volumes, but the pace at which Aster is scaling makes it Hyperliquid’s fiercest challenger yet.
The two DEXs are taking very different approaches. Hyperliquid relies on its established order book depth, strong single-chain design, and buyback-driven tokenomics. Aster, meanwhile, is going multi-chain, leaning on aggressive airdrops, incentives, and features like hidden orders to lure users.
Conclusion
Hyperliquid has achieved what few projects manage relevance, momentum, and a passionate user base. But the next 24 months will be brutal. Nearly half a billion dollars’ worth of HYPE tokens will unlock each month, while rivals smell blood and market sentiment shifts.
The rally may survive. Or, the unlocks could trigger one of crypto’s biggest supply shocks. Either way, Hyperliquid is about to show whether it’s built to last or just another name on the long list of crypto stars that burned too bright, too fast.
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